Friday, March 29, 2013

March and QUARTERLY review tl;dr

First off I will say that now blogger has changed pic uploading and viewing to a retarded version, it's best to right click and open the images in another tab because when you click back it takes you back to top of blog instead of where you were reading. WP blogger, initiative of the higest order, you should team up with FB and battle for the Webhosters Retardation Crown.

Well it's not quite the end of the month but am drawing up the summary now as I doubt I'll play much today and tomorrow. Sunday the 31st I'm actually finally whipping out the live guns and going to play a 2 day event "Easter Extravaganza" (LOL) at my local Genting. It's £150 £10k guarantee. 66 players required to make that, I should imagine there will be more and am intrigued as to how many places they'll pay out. imo it should be around 8 and therefore it SHOULD be 8-max all the way through to make it FT gets paid. I'm about 97% sure that won't be the case, I think if anything these places pay out too little spots, it'll probably be like 6 or something sigh. But anyway, I plan to crush and get in loads of spots where I've got 35-50bbs and faced with a raise, call, call sitting on TT and wondering just wtf to do, and such like. Well I guess there'd be just about enough in the middle to bang that one all-in, but still, bound to be lots of spots where I'm gonna make a much better decision looking at number readouts on a pc screen that what I'll do live. So I'll prob end up becoming a passive fish like the rest and flat everything. We'll see.

Have ended up winning some right at the end of this month, thank flip! I FT'd the Hot $55 again last night, for the second time this year, and got a rather annoying 6th for $2.7k. I shouldn't complain as I should've been gone in 9th when my JJ walks into AA and I flop a set. The 80% turn/river Ace never showed up so was some miracle. I was still disappointed though because I folded a hand I so should've shoved, being shorty on the CO with 6bbs. Was a tough table though as there wasn't a single player over 15% VPIP, they were mostly regs. And the usual doubling of shorty went down about 10x, except for when I get my last 4bbs in with J8o and BB flops trips. ok then. Even more annoying was that 18m reg czlol went and eliminated the final 4 players in 5 consecutive hands.

Anyway, March ends up like this:






And the first quarter looks like this:




This now makes $100/hr on the year, £65/hr, £1400 a week LOOLLLLLLLL. None too shabby.

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Let's break things down a little bit


Here is sharkscopes list according to which games I play most.





Wow so 500+ is the biggest number I've played of any one game in 3 months :-OO As you can see, I like to be a master of all trades, jack of none ehehehehehe.

Well I won't break down each buy-in aswell as format because there simply hasn't been enough volume so I'll do all 18's together.

18's



EV comparison


This is AIPF EV. 28% down. If I do it to showdown which includes getting it in on any street, it's down 17%, and for every single hand (ie no filter at all) it's down 27% so fair to say the 28% is probably accurate. ROI is 11%, add 28% to that would make 14% ROI, so once again this way of measuring EV seems to be by far the most accurate out there, as 14% true ROI is very believable for 18m and also ties in precisely the same for long term, like two years worth of stats too.
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180's (non rebuy)


EV comparison


20% covering all stakes, obv tiny sample. EV there is 35% down, making possible true ROI 27%. I feel I'm even better than that, definitely in the 30% zone for sure. I've suffered so many beats right at the end game with huge stacks. Didn't blog it yet but the other day, shortly after the last whine post, I won a $35 180 and did get lucky to win it. FT was reg packed but I played it fucking perfect! Ended up HU vs zebkiwi and came from a 1:3 chip deficit (flex). HE was massive CL with like 8,7,6 left and made some hilarious iso's. Terrible reg.

I had one other game left running with it which was a $60 180 in which I was 3rd in chips with about 30 left. Come bubble, just a few minutes later, I was a struggling 5bb stack having lost AA to 77 and 55 for a gigantic chip lead. Then lose AT to QQ and 55 getting it in v shorties that left me on 5bbs. The flips you face as big stack vs the shorties are almost as important as the one vs other big stacks, just picking up their 3bb stacks plus blinds is massive in late stage 180's.
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$3r 180's

Had to do sharkscope for this one to account for rebuys. Last audit I checked back in August worked out to 2.7 so I set it to that. Could be marginally different I don't know, FEELS like I've rebought less if anything.



AIPF difference for these is I'm actually up 25%. Would equate to a true 50% ROI. Not sure that's attainable, can take some off for possible rebuy miscalculation. I'm 36% lifetime in them still a bit above EV, but I definitely think +40% is possible.
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45's

These games are such bitches. Am carrying on the theme of doing completely shit in the $15's but great in the $30's, the rare occasions they actually run.



It's 30% for the $30's running enough above EV to make it an adjusted 20%. Now I think that's real. I'm 20% ROI for the last 1255 games with EV pretty much even. I still think 22+% should be achievable.
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STT's

Just gonna bung all the 6 and 9m together, mixing turbos and hypers cause sample is just too small.




Now that redline is 4.5%. Let's do a comparison of how this $ev line is supposed to work vs bb/100, because I fail to even see how a true $ redline is even possible, but then I'm dumb.




There you have it, just a 13% difference, way smaller than the redline implies, making an adjusted ROI of 7.5%. And FWIW, since Jan 2012 the green line is 7% in all STT's with redline on 3.6%. However bb/100 ev/bb100 difference is merely 4%, so hardly any difference at all.
Redline is bullshit imo, and I think it's proven even more so in the high stakes regs' graphs who are like ten million BI's below EV in like 2 years play! Most of their graphs show a break even redline while the green plummets to sick depths. BB/100 comparison probably tells a completely different story which would lead more to the conclusion that they're in fact just terrible. And I know it's isn't just as simple as take the bb/evbb/100 difference and add/subtract that to an ROI, I know it's a VERY rough guide, but imo still more accurate than $ redlines because it always paints a more feasible picture.

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Finally scheduled


Pretty brutal 250 game stretch of nothing which is obv nothing compared to what is truly possible for turbo MTT's. bb/100 is 125 with EV on 173, a hefty 40% difference.

Overall, ALL games together I'm 12% down in EV, thanks to running half decent in STT's. I would rather trade the rungood to some 18/180's for the next 3 quarters, however I would take 3 repeat performances of this first one without crying TOOOOOO much.























Monday, March 25, 2013

for a minute there I thought...but naahhh, as if!!

A few days ago I won $3.6k in SnG's in like 2 days. Been doing very well in the $30/18's especially, thinking could this FIIIIIINALLY be the turn around??! Alas, obviously not. That was it, my 2 days run good of the entire year and probably all I'll get for the rest of it. $1.2k of it was INSTA given back over the next 2 sessions. While other regs worldwide get their DAILY fair share of run good, let alone, week/month/yearly, I'm waiting a decade for a dose. Just boring to absolute suicide.

Monday, March 18, 2013

A probable pipe dream

It's probably all it will amount to, but hopefully I can grow a ballbag and realise it instead. The urge to play live has been getting stronger and stronger and lately I've been realising more and more that the UK is probably the nut country for having the most poker available in the smallest space in which to travel. Yes I know Vegas and other CITIES probably offer more, but I'm talking about an entire country here. Basically in terms of poker/sq. mile, UK should pretty much >>>>>>>>>>>> anywhere else in the world, and if it doesn't then the added bonus of not having to pay tax on anything certainly helps.

So then why don't I take advantage of this? Yes it is meant to be alot of hassle and quite the grind, so I read, but having also read what can be made, ya know I think I could pwn it hard! Whilst at the same time expanding my socialising a trillion %, and seeing 1000000% more women hopefully aswell.

Today I browsed the poker blogs on blondepoker.com, a British based poker forum that for it's size is pretty darn active, to find encouraging results. The very first one I came across for example had a 2012 summary looking like this!



£63/$100 an hour live and pretty sure he rarely ventured into £2/£5!!!

So my biggest problem with this is obv my total noobness in both the live field and travelling of any kind. So general life noobness then...at the grand old age of 35... facepalm.png!!!! I would much prefer to do stuff like this with some form of poker partner/homie/nagga. Obviously poker is a lone sport, you can't be paired with your buddies at tournament tables and even on the same cash table would be debatably -ev, but for all the rest of it, dinners, partying etc etc a companion would make everything infinitely better.

Am literally talking about leaving the place I live now (to save on £7k a year!!) and living on tour like a freakin musician or something. If one was to do that then I'm pretty sure a mobile home would >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> hotels in terms of expenses, but then not being in hotels, especially adjoining ones during times of big events, might miss out on certain partying opportunities and whatever else comes with that.

So I guess the best thing I can do realy is start off slowly by just driving to some event. As I've already mentioned my nearest casino is Southend which was recently refurbished into a Genting, who have multiple casinos across the UK resulting in a poker tour they actually host, the Genting Poker Series (GPS). There's 3 tours that I know of now, the GPS, the GUKTP which is similar but hosted in all the Grosvenor places, and then there's the UKIPT which is obviously the biggest one. UKIPT is weird, it's schedule this year actually buggers off to Spain for one event. WHAT? I believe it just finished this month with the London finale and doesn't start again until June, then August, then two in October. Like, that's not many is it?!! What about April, May, July???? Silly. But obviously GUKPT and GPS fills those gaps and everything inbetween is obviously whatever, fair sized buy-in tournies run every week all over the county, but I think more lucrative than anything else would be cash! Pretty sure I'm rolled to play £2/$5 which for a start helps with rake hugely compared with £1-£1 and £1-£2 iirc.

Whatever happens, if it means going alone or not, I'm defo going to go to my nearest casino's leg of the Genting Poker Tour and try sattying into the £400/$600 main event. But this is in August so I definitely need some live practice before then. We'll see.

Friday, March 15, 2013

Thursday, March 14, 2013

Ignoring and trying

So today I've set out with teeth grit. It's no good, I HAVE to ignore this shit and grind regardless. I've just completed 4hrs, will grab something to eat and try for more. Here's a list of hands showing the 906% below EV that I am for the day. So first one's a cooler, w/e, thousands of them anyway.

Best way to view the hh's is immediately pause all of them, then click furthest arrows RIGHT to play out each one.





And a REALLY critical one which I didn't BOOM where I'm CL on 6k chips at bb400 in a $100 18 when 2nd in chips shoves UTG, I call KK and BB folds SHOWING AN ACE. UTG has AJs and obviously the Ace comes out once in 8 times, but in reality one in two. Was out the next hand.

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

more hysteria

Nothing new to report, never will be obv. After nearly 10 yrears now nothing will ever change. Check out hand of the day, 90% on the flop.



A $700 spunking at 200bb/100 below EV today.

Saturday, March 9, 2013

Friday, March 8, 2013

425th consecutive day of cuntness

Annnnnnnnnnnnd yet another day of hell ensues. Mostly because I'm half way through a session starting out with around 16 tables, dropped to 8 in about 30 seconds of simultaneous bullshit, when I start regging more and don't realise until ages later (duh) that no new tables are popping up. I search myself and there's 25 fucking tables...I see 8!!! FFS NOT THIS AGAIN!!! Last time this happened I mailed Stars and they came out with the old "it's cuz you're using software" bullshit!

Anyways soon after I brick just about fucking everything as per usual, I make a $3r 180 FT with a WHOPPING $487 for 1st. facepalm.jgg fml kms. So I'm CL, we get to 4 handed when I limp button with 12bbs and AA. Both blinds are regs, sb folds BB has massive stack. Flop comes 726r, BB checks and into a pot of 46k I bet 18,500 and he raises pretty fast to 48k and I flat. He then jams a 5 turn and O obv snap. He has middle pair, 96 lollllllll. River? his 98% chance SIX of course.

One of thousands the same throughout the day. When is this illegal site going to be brought to justice???

Thursday, March 7, 2013

more hell, 24/7

55 mtt sng bricks today. How fuckin wunderbar. Once again was fucked over majorly in $35 180's in most of which I went quite deep. Haven't won a KK v any Ace x in what feels like forever now. Just impossible. One was FT bubble, 30k at bb2k btn v blinds rig up. I min call AQo, obv BB is rigged up with QQ. I've played 434 180s >$35 in total at 20% ROI, I checked today, EV is ONE HUNDRED AND TWENTY PER CENT BELOW. Just shows how good I am. When am I going to get a fair crack? How is it all the average robot regs run to expectation every day with very much the minority of days running bad, but I'm the SOLE OPPOSITE?

IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU IMPOSSIBRUU

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

1 week in

Well almost. Needless to say....HELL. Yes it doth continuouth. Well I've only played a pathetic 16hrs so far, and am up $1200, but obviously this should be more like 14 million. I've had alot of 15-35 and even one $60 180 man FT's just to be royally screwed badly in every single one of them. The nut worst being the very one I just finished up, going from 100k CL with 6 left to stone 4th!!! And this was with two 80% VPIP whales, not regs. It's very, VERY rare that I ever don't go onto at least get HU with a 100k stack on a table of whales. Soul crushing final hands saw K5 <<< 62 bvb then 88 <<<< A2o for lights out.

In the $60 FT I got a smashing 9th having started out in 4th. First this utter hilarity cunted me:

Right well I can't post hh's cuz this place is completely fucked as per usual. siiiiiiiiiiiiigh. Basically I raise in mp with 32k at bb2k and BB flats on 7bbs LMAO. I have ATs and flop is T79r, he checks I bet same sizeas pre raise 4k, he calls LOL, turn is blank I put his remainder in, a measely 7k he calls and turns over K8o. oesd. As you know I'm a 3% dog here, sure enough, his 97%er came in, Jack river. Very next hand left with 16k, I shove AQo in, BB wakes up with TT and nothing higher than a cunting 5 comes out.

Played very few 18's as I've started swapping them for 9m hypers. Amazingly it's those in which I SEEM to be running above ev. It doesn't feel like it whatsoever but according to the stats I am. But all in all it's the same old, intention is there to grind, I get 1 hour in and feel worse than I would were all my family burned alive in a grease fire, quit, rinse and repeat. Chinese water torture is much MUCH nice than playing poker....ON MY ACCCOUNT.