March and QUARTERLY review tl;dr

First off I will say that now blogger has changed pic uploading and viewing to a retarded version, it's best to right click and open the images in another tab because when you click back it takes you back to top of blog instead of where you were reading. WP blogger, initiative of the higest order, you should team up with FB and battle for the Webhosters Retardation Crown.

Well it's not quite the end of the month but am drawing up the summary now as I doubt I'll play much today and tomorrow. Sunday the 31st I'm actually finally whipping out the live guns and going to play a 2 day event "Easter Extravaganza" (LOL) at my local Genting. It's £150 £10k guarantee. 66 players required to make that, I should imagine there will be more and am intrigued as to how many places they'll pay out. imo it should be around 8 and therefore it SHOULD be 8-max all the way through to make it FT gets paid. I'm about 97% sure that won't be the case, I think if anything these places pay out too little spots, it'll probably be like 6 or something sigh. But anyway, I plan to crush and get in loads of spots where I've got 35-50bbs and faced with a raise, call, call sitting on TT and wondering just wtf to do, and such like. Well I guess there'd be just about enough in the middle to bang that one all-in, but still, bound to be lots of spots where I'm gonna make a much better decision looking at number readouts on a pc screen that what I'll do live. So I'll prob end up becoming a passive fish like the rest and flat everything. We'll see.

Have ended up winning some right at the end of this month, thank flip! I FT'd the Hot $55 again last night, for the second time this year, and got a rather annoying 6th for $2.7k. I shouldn't complain as I should've been gone in 9th when my JJ walks into AA and I flop a set. The 80% turn/river Ace never showed up so was some miracle. I was still disappointed though because I folded a hand I so should've shoved, being shorty on the CO with 6bbs. Was a tough table though as there wasn't a single player over 15% VPIP, they were mostly regs. And the usual doubling of shorty went down about 10x, except for when I get my last 4bbs in with J8o and BB flops trips. ok then. Even more annoying was that 18m reg czlol went and eliminated the final 4 players in 5 consecutive hands.

Anyway, March ends up like this:






And the first quarter looks like this:




This now makes $100/hr on the year, £65/hr, £1400 a week LOOLLLLLLLL. None too shabby.

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Let's break things down a little bit


Here is sharkscopes list according to which games I play most.





Wow so 500+ is the biggest number I've played of any one game in 3 months :-OO As you can see, I like to be a master of all trades, jack of none ehehehehehe.

Well I won't break down each buy-in aswell as format because there simply hasn't been enough volume so I'll do all 18's together.

18's



EV comparison


This is AIPF EV. 28% down. If I do it to showdown which includes getting it in on any street, it's down 17%, and for every single hand (ie no filter at all) it's down 27% so fair to say the 28% is probably accurate. ROI is 11%, add 28% to that would make 14% ROI, so once again this way of measuring EV seems to be by far the most accurate out there, as 14% true ROI is very believable for 18m and also ties in precisely the same for long term, like two years worth of stats too.
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180's (non rebuy)


EV comparison


20% covering all stakes, obv tiny sample. EV there is 35% down, making possible true ROI 27%. I feel I'm even better than that, definitely in the 30% zone for sure. I've suffered so many beats right at the end game with huge stacks. Didn't blog it yet but the other day, shortly after the last whine post, I won a $35 180 and did get lucky to win it. FT was reg packed but I played it fucking perfect! Ended up HU vs zebkiwi and came from a 1:3 chip deficit (flex). HE was massive CL with like 8,7,6 left and made some hilarious iso's. Terrible reg.

I had one other game left running with it which was a $60 180 in which I was 3rd in chips with about 30 left. Come bubble, just a few minutes later, I was a struggling 5bb stack having lost AA to 77 and 55 for a gigantic chip lead. Then lose AT to QQ and 55 getting it in v shorties that left me on 5bbs. The flips you face as big stack vs the shorties are almost as important as the one vs other big stacks, just picking up their 3bb stacks plus blinds is massive in late stage 180's.
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$3r 180's

Had to do sharkscope for this one to account for rebuys. Last audit I checked back in August worked out to 2.7 so I set it to that. Could be marginally different I don't know, FEELS like I've rebought less if anything.



AIPF difference for these is I'm actually up 25%. Would equate to a true 50% ROI. Not sure that's attainable, can take some off for possible rebuy miscalculation. I'm 36% lifetime in them still a bit above EV, but I definitely think +40% is possible.
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45's

These games are such bitches. Am carrying on the theme of doing completely shit in the $15's but great in the $30's, the rare occasions they actually run.



It's 30% for the $30's running enough above EV to make it an adjusted 20%. Now I think that's real. I'm 20% ROI for the last 1255 games with EV pretty much even. I still think 22+% should be achievable.
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STT's

Just gonna bung all the 6 and 9m together, mixing turbos and hypers cause sample is just too small.




Now that redline is 4.5%. Let's do a comparison of how this $ev line is supposed to work vs bb/100, because I fail to even see how a true $ redline is even possible, but then I'm dumb.




There you have it, just a 13% difference, way smaller than the redline implies, making an adjusted ROI of 7.5%. And FWIW, since Jan 2012 the green line is 7% in all STT's with redline on 3.6%. However bb/100 ev/bb100 difference is merely 4%, so hardly any difference at all.
Redline is bullshit imo, and I think it's proven even more so in the high stakes regs' graphs who are like ten million BI's below EV in like 2 years play! Most of their graphs show a break even redline while the green plummets to sick depths. BB/100 comparison probably tells a completely different story which would lead more to the conclusion that they're in fact just terrible. And I know it's isn't just as simple as take the bb/evbb/100 difference and add/subtract that to an ROI, I know it's a VERY rough guide, but imo still more accurate than $ redlines because it always paints a more feasible picture.

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Finally scheduled


Pretty brutal 250 game stretch of nothing which is obv nothing compared to what is truly possible for turbo MTT's. bb/100 is 125 with EV on 173, a hefty 40% difference.

Overall, ALL games together I'm 12% down in EV, thanks to running half decent in STT's. I would rather trade the rungood to some 18/180's for the next 3 quarters, however I would take 3 repeat performances of this first one without crying TOOOOOO much.